Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Tommorow Big Day for Stocks

Today the market surrrrged. The Dow Jones (DJIA) was up 391.47 points or 3.19% to 12,654.36. The NASDAQ was up 83.65 (3.67%) to 2,362.75, and the S&P 500 was up 47.48 points, 3.59% to 1370.18. Woah. Lots of numbers. Better yet, lots of green numbers. Let me summarize: the markets did work today.
However, if we're ever going to get out of the current slump, which I think we should and will do, the market is going to have to string together consecutive days of good performance. The market looks like it may be at a bottom, but if it just goes back down, were still stuck in our rut. Look at the S&P graph from Google Finance (.INX) to see what I mean.

While I'm no technician (some one who uses graphs and charts to predict the market) I do believe that using technicals can help predict how markets will perform. Looking at this chart shows me that over the past 3 months, in which the market lost 6.69%, there have been distinct support and resistance values for the S&P. You can see the 4 peaks, labelled ABCD, and the downward resistance line they create. You can also see the support line, created by the troughs EFG. Today broke this resistance. While this isn't enough to make market calls, it does show investor sentiment rose a notable amount, as prices broke trends that were keeping them in a downward spiral. Also, news from the Treasury, the extension of Fed's auction window to investment institutions, stimulus package on the way and rallying international markets make me hopeful.
The patterns here are very similar to those of the NASDAQ and the DJIA . (Check out Google Finance for their graphs.) Another thing I find promising about the charts is that one, the S&P was following a distinct trend before 2008 as well. And two, the last time the S&P broke trend, it broke support, and the market began a larger downward trend. (See above graph, the trend lines should be pretty apparent.) Now that it has broken trend again, and this time by breaking resistance, I'm hopeful we'll see an upward trend.

I'm looking at tomorrow as a sort of Grounds-Hog Day. If the market comes out, sees its shadow and dives 2%, we may be back in the rut and today was a fluke. But if we can keep this growth, and add new growth over the coming days without any unexpected bad news, I think we may have weathered the storm. Let's hope for the best.

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This site reflects my personal opinions. Investing involves risk and everyone must make decisions for themselves. If your dumb enough just to invest based only off what I say, you probably deserve to get screwed.
I may own some of the stocks I talk about on this blog. The intent is not to try to manipulate prices, I don't pretend to have that kind of influence, but to let others know about good investment opportunties I've seen.
CURRENTLY I OWN: Visa (V), Zix Corp (ZIXI) Disney (DIS)