The Future of Oil

I haven't written an article in a matter of months, and to those who still check this blog I apologize. It is not that I do not want to write, but just that I didn't feel I had much to say that was constructive or useful. I, as most, have been at a loss over the past months as stocks have plummeted and the financial crisis has worsened. While I still have little insight into the equity market, I do feel that there is a situation developing within the oil market.

One of the few things I was sure about 6 months ago was that commodities, especially oil and gold, were in a bubble brought on by inflation worries and a rush of investor money fleeing the stock market.We have watched oil prices move from highs around $150 per barrel to a current spot on the NYMEX of crude oil at $39.82. That's more than a 73% decrease in price, in just a few months. Gas prices went from an average over $4 per gallon to a national average well under $2. No one is talking about oil anymore, unless they are commenting on its epic slide.

I think that oil is a BUY. Oil, while once over-valued, has gone below what most were calling fair value (between $60-80 a barrel) and has continued to fall, even with talks of an OPEC intervention. While I knew that oil's very short term demand was more elastic than many guessed, as we can see by the fall in oil's price, its longer short term demand is not so. It will take years for us to get off oil, and we are no where close currently. This huge decrease in price is going to stop advancement of alternative energy for a while. Prices will begin to rise again, and there is nothing stopping oil returning to previous levels. With OPEC slashing supply, prices will eventually rise. Even if oil only returns to fair value, it represents a $20 per barrel increase. This is a more than 50%. While I bet against oil and gold when the commodities were over-priced, I will now bet with oil because it is undervalued. Unlike stocks, oil does not have mortgage debt exposure. It has intrinsic value, and there seems to be little long term downside, as oil will be in demand for at least another 20 years.
I see a possibility that oil could drop to lower levels, possibly even below $30. However, I doubt this, and I think there is a much greater chance that oil prices rise. This is why I think oil is a buy right now, because I believe oil is nearing its trough.

Ways to Invest Without Writing Futures Contracts

The best way to gain exposure to oil, in my opinion, is through an ETF. Though there are some fees, it greatly reduces complications of writing contracts, and is relatively liquid (especially the ones I choseto highlight). The best ones I've researched:

Ticker: OIL (NYSE)
Full Name: Goldman Sacs Crude Oil Total Return ETN
YTD High/Low Price (% change): 86.90/21.68 (-75%)
More Info

Ticker: DXO
Full Name: PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN
YTD High/Low (% change): 28.78/2.30 (-92%)
More Info

Ticker: DBO
Full Name: Powershares DB Oil Fund ETF
YTD High/Low (% change): 54.93/18.22 (-66.83%)
More Info

Let me know what you think.

Don't be a Greedy Dumb Ass Like Me

So I'm writing today to talk about screwing up. I've been riding high recently, mostly on my investment in Visa (V.) This made me cocky, and also stupid. I decided to try some swing trades, pretty much going off of nothing. Let's just say I learned a lot.

Here is the situation:

Kodiak Oil and Gas Corp. (AMEX: KOG) is a pretty volitle little stock. Its way up this year, but I looked at it after it hit $4.00 a share, a recent high. From there I figured it would drop, which it did from the beginning. However, it kept dropping. I was looking for an entry point, and I bought soon after the mega drop (see chart 1) at $3.60 and $3.72. I sold some shares right before close at just about $3.80.

Pretty sweet right? Nice 5.6% gain in under 2 hours. But the problem was I got greedy. I kept a majority of shares waiting for $4.00 again. I watched shares the next day open at $3.60 settting off a my stop sell order at $3.70. Ouch.

It doesn't end there. I figured I had avoided much of the worst, and so I kept watching the stock. On Tuesday I watched shares continue their demise, and waited for a entry point. After seeing the trough at around $3.40 for about 30 minutes (see below chart), I missed the boat and couldn't get a price below $3.49. I wasn't worried however, because I was counting on a return to $3.65-3.70 and making up my losses from the day before. However, shares didn't rise above $3.55, and I ended up keeping shares overnight (BAD IDEA.) I missed selling at $3.60 the next day, getting really greedy, and came back a little later to see prices were wayyyy down. Today I'm looking at KOG pricing between $3.25 and $3.40. Pretty sucky.

This is the epitome of crappy, stupid, pathetic day trading at it's worst. I gave up taking 5.6% gains in favor of chasing more. Then I tried to win my losses back by trading the same stock in the same way, and not taking gains when I had them. DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN TO YOU!!!!!

My strategy for these trades was sound. I looked for waining negative volume, bought at a low price and watched the price grow, however, I got greedy and couldn't sell for a small gain. Now I'm faced with stupid losses, and have to either hold onto a stock like KOG, or else sell for a sizable loss. Lesson: Be smart with swing/day trading. Remember, if you make just 1% a day after fees and commissions, your making over 200% a year.