Thursday, June 12, 2008

Don't be a Greedy Dumb Ass Like Me

So I'm writing today to talk about screwing up. I've been riding high recently, mostly on my investment in Visa (V.) This made me cocky, and also stupid. I decided to try some swing trades, pretty much going off of nothing. Let's just say I learned a lot.


Here is the situation:


Kodiak Oil and Gas Corp. (AMEX: KOG) is a pretty volitle little stock. Its way up this year, but I looked at it after it hit $4.00 a share, a recent high. From there I figured it would drop, which it did from the beginning. However, it kept dropping. I was looking for an entry point, and I bought soon after the mega drop (see chart 1) at $3.60 and $3.72. I sold some shares right before close at just about $3.80.


Pretty sweet right? Nice 5.6% gain in under 2 hours. But the problem was I got greedy. I kept a majority of shares waiting for $4.00 again. I watched shares the next day open at $3.60 settting off a my stop sell order at $3.70. Ouch.


It doesn't end there. I figured I had avoided much of the worst, and so I kept watching the stock. On Tuesday I watched shares continue their demise, and waited for a entry point. After seeing the trough at around $3.40 for about 30 minutes (see below chart), I missed the boat and couldn't get a price below $3.49. I wasn't worried however, because I was counting on a return to $3.65-3.70 and making up my losses from the day before. However, shares didn't rise above $3.55, and I ended up keeping shares overnight (BAD IDEA.) I missed selling at $3.60 the next day, getting really greedy, and came back a little later to see prices were wayyyy down. Today I'm looking at KOG pricing between $3.25 and $3.40. Pretty sucky.


This is the epitome of crappy, stupid, pathetic day trading at it's worst. I gave up taking 5.6% gains in favor of chasing more. Then I tried to win my losses back by trading the same stock in the same way, and not taking gains when I had them. DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN TO YOU!!!!!


My strategy for these trades was sound. I looked for waining negative volume, bought at a low price and watched the price grow, however, I got greedy and couldn't sell for a small gain. Now I'm faced with stupid losses, and have to either hold onto a stock like KOG, or else sell for a sizable loss. Lesson: Be smart with swing/day trading. Remember, if you make just 1% a day after fees and commissions, your making over 200% a year.

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This site reflects my personal opinions. Investing involves risk and everyone must make decisions for themselves. If your dumb enough just to invest based only off what I say, you probably deserve to get screwed.
I may own some of the stocks I talk about on this blog. The intent is not to try to manipulate prices, I don't pretend to have that kind of influence, but to let others know about good investment opportunties I've seen.
CURRENTLY I OWN: Visa (V), Zix Corp (ZIXI) Disney (DIS)